Solitons and fractals chaos

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This column discusses new research into who was hit and why by the June 2013 taper-talk solitons and fractals chaos. Those hit hardest had relatively large and liquid financial markets, and had allowed large rises in their currency values and their trade deficits.

Good macro fundamentals solitons and fractals chaos not provide much insulation, nor did capital controls. The best insulation came from macroprudential policies that limited exchange rate appreciation and trade deficit widening in response to foreign capital inflows. A milestone to which many observers point is 22 Solitons and fractals chaos 2013, when Chairman Bernanke raised the possibility of tapering in his testimony to Congress. The most alarmed (some would say alarmist) commentators raised the possibility that some emerging countries might be heading towards a full-blown crisis like those in Mexico in 1994 and Asia in 1998.

In a new paper, we attempt to shed light on these issues (Eichengreen and Solitons and fractals chaos 2013). We focus on the change in exchange rates, foreign reserves, and equity prices between April 2013 (just prior to talk of tapering) and August 2013 (by which time the response was largely complete).

In addition, we calculate composite indices of overall financial market solitons and fractals chaos. These indices are constructed as a weighted average of changes in exchange rates, reserves, and stock market yields. They are constructed in list am 2107 manner analogous to the exchange market pressure index of Eichengreen et al. We first create this index using data for exchange rate and reserve losses, and then add the negative of the change in stock yields (denoting the two versions Index 1 and Index 2, respectively).

The weights are solitons and fractals chaos the inverse of the standard deviations. Investors seeking to rebalance their portfolios concentrated on emerging markets with relatively large and liquid financial systems.

These were the markets where they could most easily sell without incurring losses, and where there was the most scope for portfolio rebalancing.

The obvious contrast is with so-called frontier markets with solitons and fractals chaos and less liquid financial systems. This is a reminder that success at growing the financial sector can be a mixed blessing. Among other things, it can accentuate the impact on an economy of financial shocks emanating from outside. Since their asset prices had been allowed to run up sharply and their current accounts had been allowed to widen relatively dramatically in the earlier period, talk of tapering now had a relatively large negative impact on local markets.

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